Kesses Constituency Battleground Tracking Poll

A new political tracking poll shows a head to head battle of numbers remarkably through the past two weeks with no notable shift of intensity.

It also hypothesizes a close range win-lose situation and worth noting is a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a month.

The electorate is deeply divided and polarized which makes this election look increasingly like a regional competition. Whoever runs up their vote count within their regional numbers will significantly be on the lead.

82% say they will vote for a candidate outside Tarakwa region compared to 18%.

The poll was in the field from Monday to Monday. The final night of tracking was good for Jonathan Birgen but it’s not a big enough sample to report and this does not reflect any momentum.

A more energized base frees up Former MP David Koros and Former TAC Tutor George Rop to focus more of their energy on wooing youths and those unhappy with Tarakwa Leadership. They are also viewed as offering a mature leadership.

George Rop is said to be engaged in covert campaings and registration of URP members and likewise to James Bett who recent polls have shown that his ratings are dropping.

James Bett and David Koros are said to have a significant advantage over others among voters who name money as the most important in this campaign.

Ben Rutto did improve his favourability a little bit but he still has major problems has he does not have a solid homebase.

Incumbent MP Peris Simam is not currently sailing smooth. The bad news for the incumbent is that she faces an undercurrent that will keep the electorate animated. Among all likely voters,74% say she has steered the constituency to the wrong track.

The poll also shows this campaign is juggling the challenge of getting the highest number of registered party members to participate at the nomination stage. In URP James Bett and George Rop top in registration of party members while in ODM David Koros has no one to compete with likewise to Tito Koiyet in UDM.

Of the 600 who were surveyed 450 were registered as URP members. 86% said one of the strongest drivers of the vote right now is who voters think will better handle distribution of funds and Legislative duties in parliament. Majority say it’s time they vote in a good parliamentary debator unlike other years.

Law School students assisted in conducting this bipartisan poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Here are the percentages;
Jonathan Birgen………….16%
Hon Peris Simam………..15%
George Rop…………………14%
James Bett………………….. 12%
Hon David Koros……….. 12%
Ben Rutto……………………….9%
Silas Kering……………………..7%
Tito Koiyet……………………….6%
Philip Melly………………………5%
John Bor………………………….2%
Gilbert Sato……..below 1%
Julius Limo……….below 1%

The writer Kimutai Korir is a Law graduate,practising advocate and a Political analyst-kimutaiakorir@ovi.com

Advertisements

One thought on “Kesses Constituency Battleground Tracking Poll

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s