Kesses Constituency: Latest Opinion Poll

Survey conducted shows the race for Kesses Constituency Parliamentary seat remains very close in battlegrounds.

Monthly tracking results were collected from the four wards on a 28-day rolling average basis. The participants were randomly selected from a demographically diverse panel. It was also sampled from social media responses. The sampling error was +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Voters were fairly evenly divided as to which candidate to vote for but the survey shows 70% of voters rate policies as the most important in this coming election. 60% think party affliation is important while 30% say money is important.

It also shows an unchallenged record for both integrity and prior-record with regional affliation at 82%.

This were the results:
David Koros…………..18%
James Bett……………16%
George Rop…………….16%
Peris Simam………….15%
Jonathan Birgen…..13%
Silas Kering……………..13%
Ben Rutto………………….3%
Tito Koiyet……………….2%
James Letting………..2%
Others were below 1%.

On Party,URP had a double digit lead.
URP……..53%
ODM…….27%
TNA…….10%
UDF……….5%
KANU……4%
UDM……….1%

It was found that voters decide which candidate to support based on their enlightened preferences as formed by the information they have learned during the campaign as wells as basic political cues such as ideology and party identification and regionalism.

90% of voters indicated they would vote for a candidate from outside Tarakwa region. The poll also shows a candidates strength is determined by his regions support with David Koros at 83% in Kesses, George Rop at 80% in Tulwet and Peris Simam at 77% in Tarakwa.

James Bett’s popularity is at 54% in every region as he is said to have nearly transversed the whole constituency while Jonathan Birgen has 46%.

David Koros beat Peris Simam 70% to 30% on development but 65% say Koros is in a wrong party.

It was also found that considering David Koros was in ODM only one candidate would beat him if they were to win the URP party nomination.James Bett with 51% to 49% and a tie from both Peris Simam and George Rop at 50% each.

In other fields polls favour aspiring Governor Julius Bittok.
Julius Bittok…………65%
Enock Muigei…………..5%
Kenneth Misoi………..3%
Vesca Kangogo…….1%
26% are undecided.

On senatorship Jesse Maizs leads with 11% while 89% say they have not found a favourable candidate.

On Woman Parliamentary Representative Prof Margaret Kamar leads with 57% while 12% were rooting for Peris Simam. The rest were undecided.

However it is also well known that opinion polls can vary wildly over the campaign,the variation is attributed to events that take place in the campaigns. By the time we went to the print James Bett was dropping drastically while Peris Simam was edging upwards. David Koros,George Rop and Peris Simam were said to be popular on Media through Kass Fm Radio.

We can not however conclude that this ratings will stay over time but we do show that it is consistent with the aggregate forecast and individual-level opinion poll responses.

@kessesconstituency2013

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3 thoughts on “Kesses Constituency: Latest Opinion Poll

  1. what where the sequence of your statistics in regard data,how comes you mentioned about 4 locations yet cheptiret was not included,and do you think face really reflects what is on the ground?.who are some of the sources sampled,what was your methodology of data collection,the opinion poll leaves alot to be desired,but in any case you have a right to copy paste any matter you deem appropriate for hearing!

  2. non of the above aspirant is gonna win if he/she does’nt portray him/herself as obedient,competent & a leader who can speak 4 his/her pple but not 4 him/herself & building bridges to reach him/her.

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